TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x64e4…2089

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
164
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Golf, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Golf at 58 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT11943.7%52 W · 67 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 119 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.5
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.5
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
France vs. England: France O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$82.86
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. England: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$113.26
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.51
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+60%+$60
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$31.26
France vs. Morocco: France O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$45.26
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$78.94
Luis Díaz: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 119 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT2339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+275.2%+$178.89
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+75.4%+$60.35
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+222.6%+$89.03
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+37%+$29.59
Will Brentford win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+316.7%+$63.33
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+100.1%+$75.1
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.27
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester United win on 2025-02-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Everton win on 2025-01-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+163.2%+$32.63
Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+29.9%+$22.4
All 23 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+169.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Golf — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$265.71
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$136.22
Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup Day 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+119.3%+$35.78
Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$35.22
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Open Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Ludvig Aberg win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Justin Rose win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$146.67
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 Masters?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 11 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+29.9%+$23.9
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$19.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$26.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$28.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$38.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.