Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta reach $700 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc961e184de1ea7bac9c46a82d5fb0b0bbcc015ffd4a1b52e55fcbd6442bc9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,434$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.55 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 72c | 1,143$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.48 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 15c | 421.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 51c | 316.18$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 55c | 240$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 15c | 179.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 8c | 142.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bed…00d7backed No | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed No | 47c | 85.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f6…4d05backed No | 46c | 78.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 68c | 74.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.38per pick | 45cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 19c | 64.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 50.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 25c | 40.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked No | 47c | 38.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 67c | 24.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6490…3ba1backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 18.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 70c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 16.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta reach $700 in April?this page
- Will Meta dip to $450 in April?No won
- Will Meta dip to $500 in April?No won
- Will Meta dip to $540 in April?No won
- Will Meta dip to $570 in April?Yes won
- Will Meta dip to $620 in April?Yes won
- Will Meta dip to $640 in April?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $660 in April?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $680 in April?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $730 in April?No won
- Will Meta reach $810 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.