South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-10-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bf0d7c9ffb2592be8bb80d96030b7bba373bf08963f91aafb72a247479c7c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 34c | 2,050$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,353 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 1,837$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.52 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…adbebacked No | 69c | 1,478$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…56debacked Yes | 31c | 1,478$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 44c | 702.82$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.81 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 65c | 572.15$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.7 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 37c | 547.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.68 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 36c | 495$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.8 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…d25fbacked Yes | 34c | 408$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…d079backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…42f9backed Yes | 36c | 280.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 64c | 256.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 63c | 95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…1763backed Yes | 79c | 85.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 33c | 31.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a26…7300backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 74c | 18.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked No | 69c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-10-18?this page
- Will CF América win on 2025-10-18?No won
- Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CF América end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.