Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ajax beat Besiktas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bff1e2160e6a15de20371d8c5712418e51caeb7203e58ba7cb5768e58279f5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 4c | 875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked No | 4c | 625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 47c | 436.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.26 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 50c | 177.8$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 26c | 167.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ec…ec37backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 50c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f90…153dbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0b…1f5bbacked Yes | 53c | 37.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax beat Besiktas?this page
- Will Besiktas beat Ajax?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.