Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Polina Iatcenko vs Maria Lourdes Carle
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbacac966763f8082c7d7c25bead504280d3c116c684f08ebe5193dcc729028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carleof Iatcenko, Carle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Iatcenko | 19c | 600.04$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Carle | 30c | 576.72$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.52 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Carle | 33c | 288$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.96 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Carle | 68c | 210.87$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Iatcenko | 59c | 152.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Iatcenko | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Carle | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Iatcenko | 66c | 147$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Iatcenko | 45c | 118.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Carle | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Iatcenko | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Iatcenko | 27c | 98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Iatcenko | 74c | 95.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Iatcenko | 80c | 69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Carle | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Carle | 45c | 44.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Carle | 34c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Carle | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Carle | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Iatcenko | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Polina Iatcenko vs Maria Lourdes Carlethis page
- Set 1 Winner: Iatcenko vs CarleCarle won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.