Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cd3cfdd7705df671c9ead3bb904d1c7d7a6726e93abfd0019e323f9dbe32b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ilbirs eSports | 0c | 5,530$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 4,195$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.82 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 3,830$2,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.13 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 2,239$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.01 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 2,112$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.52 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 1,717$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.6 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…d8dbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 1,415$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Nemiga Gaming | 73c | 392.54$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Ilbirs eSports | 18c | 389.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 307.57$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 303.1$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 257.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 167.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Nemiga Gaming | 49c | 161$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.56 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 110.7$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 70.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 66.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 51.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 43.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group BNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.