Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3794383568e0ea5857c44c7d788da7b40a57c748e5d256d0b492d9fa1fb247f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,485 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 3,251$1,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.58 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 3,156$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.16 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ilbirs eSports | 0c | 2,549$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 1,026$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 824.66$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.43 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 499.97$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.47 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 76c | 454.19$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…e268backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 308.26$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…4fa6backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 279.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 252.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…fd05backed Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 205.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 188.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 182.49$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Ilbirs eSports | 46c | 156.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 155.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 147.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 126.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 91.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6a…c76abacked Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 83.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 82.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 79.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 78.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…9541backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf0…9bf5backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 71.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…600ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…c922backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 50.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -7.4wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 45.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b7…ae1dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 69c | 32.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…6596backed Ilbirs eSports | 48c | 24.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed Nemiga Gaming | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 19.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.