Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Halys (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cef3039c38843249cda8d929e9d8f97107dc15adc8c180a4b1e8cc8a6618a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Nakashima, Halys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x977d…9a58backed Nakashima | 45c | 178.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Halys | 55c | 151.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Halys | 57c | 116$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Halys | 57c | 112$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Halys | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Nakashima | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 600 | 53.8%323 W · 277 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Halys | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Halys | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Nakashima | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Halys | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…d6a2backed Nakashima | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Nakashima | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Nakashima | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Halys | 56c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Nakashima | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Nakashima | 43c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nakashima | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Nakashima | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Nakashima | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Halys | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Halys | 56c | 20.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Halys (+1.5)this page
- Brisbane International: Quentin Halys vs Brandon NakashimaNakashima won
- Halys vs. Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.