Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Quentin Halys vs Brandon Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ca2f2c8197f659ed4cbeb0a852a90891fac09da215e073407cbe33cd05609c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Halys, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Halys | 12c | 2,999$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.11 | 8,152 | 45.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L | +155.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Halys | 17c | 1,549$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.47 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Halys | 13c | 1,131$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.19 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Halys | 24c | 887.28$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.64 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Nakashima | 66c | 772$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.48 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Halys | 34c | 766.41$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.58 | 780 | 52.7%411 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Halys | 35c | 625$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Halys | 35c | 555$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Halys | 9c | 537.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Nakashima | 68c | 403.46$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.7 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Nakashima | 69c | 354.01$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 926 | 55.9%518 W · 408 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Nakashima | 65c | 339.14$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Halys | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Halys | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…670bbacked Nakashima | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Halys | 14c | 289.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Nakashima | 65c | 234.78$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Nakashima | 65c | 220.01$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Nakashima | 67c | 203.6$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc88d…1da9backed Halys | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Halys | 12c | 198.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 6,685 | 36.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L | -96.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…3ae6backed Halys | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 66c | 172.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 7,710 | 47.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Nakashima | 67c | 165.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1228backed Halys | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Nakashima | 67c | 145.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Nakashima | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 96 | 69.8%67 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Halys | 13c | 137.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Nakashima | 66c | 123.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Nakashima | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Nakashima | 67c | 116.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Halys | 13c | 112.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Halys | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,304 | 51.1%1,177 W · 1,127 L | +10.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e2c2backed Nakashima | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Halys | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Halys | 20c | 94.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Halys | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Nakashima | 67c | 88.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2,332 | 46.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Nakashima | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Nakashima | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ae…1464backed Halys | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c60…2227backed Halys | 34c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -10.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…3750backed Halys | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Halys | 34c | 49.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 491 | 42.8%210 W · 281 L | -15.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Halys | 31c | 45.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,151 | 44.4%511 W · 640 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Halys | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Nakashima | 79c | 42.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Nakashima | 79c | 38.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Nakashima | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Nakashima | 69c | 37.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nakashima | 66c | 36.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 6,411 | 54.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L | +283.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Halys | 33c | 33.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Halys | 35c | 29.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…6903backed Nakashima | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1163…3642backed Nakashima | 67c | 26.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64fc…9b30backed Nakashima | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecb…7824backed Nakashima | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Nakashima | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Quentin Halys vs Brandon Nakashimathis page
- Halys vs. Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Halys (+1.5)Nakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.