Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cfac759918b55725520db8f331f3e267494bcf57210dc3e091dbdb9f08cb60e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Yes | 1c | 1,466$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 985.88$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 646.52$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.51 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…165cbacked Yes | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 351.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 343.66$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 26c | 230.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 72c | 185.23$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 76c | 176.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 76c | 176.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 76c | 175.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 24c | 152.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 148.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked No | 76c | 146.05$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3341…d7e4backed Yes | 24c | 123$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe42…b3b2backed Yes | 26c | 85.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 75c | 66.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 22c | 58.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 75c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 23c | 49.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 24c | 41.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 76c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…4a98backed No | 76c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 75c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…f3babacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 75c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 53 | 73.6%39 W · 14 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-17?this page
- Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-04-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.