Australian A League · resolved market
Will Auckland FC win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6042527fc3e3e3f93aa3488bf3c9254c4ab5fc935a945970ab65b1e6f272ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 32c | 6,791$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Yes | 70c | 5,960$4,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 42c | 3,292$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.69 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 2,088$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.78 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce51…198cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,304$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 65c | 1,286$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.04 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…8ec7backed Yes | 57c | 1,228$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed No | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Yes | 65c | 415.83$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 42c | 409.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Yes | 64c | 407.4$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.04 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 34c | 398$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.69 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed No | 39c | 344.9$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed No | 37c | 344.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 58c | 340.43$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 34c | 225$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…b039backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 53c | 187.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes | 67c | 158$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a36…8763backed No | 38c | 156.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 45c | 111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bde9backed Yes | 58c | 86.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…4a7fbacked Yes | 56c | 84.65$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 41c | 63.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b2…ae86backed Yes | 65c | 54.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed No | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf5…443bbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd2…5dfdbacked Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 52c | 29.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 42c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Yes | 58c | 26.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +151.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7174…bf43backed No | 47c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…35ccbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Auckland FC win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2025-11-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.