College Football · resolved market
Arizona State vs. BYU
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d67e492cea1f453b363d09000392ef811ad6e5a417a7cf2c7c29770f1f53699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASUof ASU, BYU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed ASU | 59c | 20,012$11,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,120.5 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc0…53ddbacked BYU | 45c | 13,411$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed BYU | 6c | 6,596$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.32 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…df99backed BYU | 42c | 6,155$2,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed BYU | 1c | 4,151$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed BYU | 3c | 3,212$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed BYU | 26c | 3,000$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed ASU | 58c | 2,314$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.77 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +324.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…29cebacked BYU | 4c | 1,356$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed BYU | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked BYU | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked ASU | 50c | 801.1$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.55 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…8441backed BYU | 24c | 500.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed ASU | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed ASU | 60c | 476.38$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.01 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…8e3cbacked BYU | 19c | 277.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked ASU | 60c | 258.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed BYU | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed BYU | 31c | 106$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed BYU | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed ASU | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked BYU | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…3c94backed BYU | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked BYU | 39c | 47.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed ASU | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…2a31backed BYU | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…3ce8backed BYU | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.