Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d7e187af6f265aa4eecf41bc703d14b577d9bb9413ff73c69372554c3b50b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 24c | 1,362$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.77 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 21c | 999.44$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.83 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 78c | 637.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 80c | 628.89$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 76c | 575.35$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.14 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 19c | 324.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Yes | 79c | 205.87$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed Yes | 80c | 128.75$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…895cbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 17c | 68.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 21c | 47.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a63ebacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…6c70backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-10-23?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar end in a draw?No won
- Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2025-10-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.