Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ddd07f749b108aa2e94cec160a52ea820f7ad1d3343d4cd1889f2fc74f2a3ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 441.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 213.57$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 168.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 14c | 132.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 107.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 107$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 78.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 69.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 62.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 61.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 57.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 55.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44f…452dbacked Yes | 37c | 53.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4466…446ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 31c | 43.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 43.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 42.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 29c | 40.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 39.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 67c | 37.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 26.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 55c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 50c | 26.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 23.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 78c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 14.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.