Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $185?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dea70fc41617468e166c20a1bdb607031313ea789550af224cae1b6abc692c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,854 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 45c | 266.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.59 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 57c | 80.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 41c | 78.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 25c | 78.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 15c | 73.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed No | 42c | 68.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 34.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 72c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 64c | 19.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…939fbacked No | 70c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 69c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $185?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $170?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $175?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $180?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $190?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $195?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $200?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 16 above $210?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.