Us Politics · resolved market
Will Matt Dolan win the Ohio Republican Senate Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df45356be3cd86a3ad093f410246ea11067bcc3a5f8c614e4daad30eaa2cc0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,014$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.52 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed Yes | 3c | 3,704$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 30c | 2,297$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.11 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…deacbacked Yes | 5c | 2,203$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…81c1backed Yes | 23c | 1,634$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed Yes | 30c | 1,498$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 67c | 975$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.75 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8822…de9bbacked Yes | 6c | 630.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 36c | 600$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ca…bb25backed Yes | 34c | 528$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 70c | 494.33$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.02 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 28c | 401.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.39 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 8c | 306$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 26c | 296$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f88…f388backed Yes | 41c | 287.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5fccbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Dolan win the Ohio Republican Senate Primary?this page
- Will Bernie Moreno win the Ohio Republican Senate Primary?Yes won
- Will Frank LaRose win the Ohio Republican Senate Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.