Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bernie Moreno win the Ohio Republican Senate Primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x247d957588c3af33cd023f8caa2b5a316c68e4cf903087261934d41734aa7ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 5c | 3,600$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes | 75c | 1,700$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 9c | 1,677$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…78e0backed No | 19c | 1,325$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 29c | 1,307$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.1 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 63c | 1,305$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.89 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…a6d7backed Yes | 69c | 782.92$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d89…59fdbacked No | 49c | 654.08$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1119…3b4fbacked Yes | 66c | 582.33$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8822…de9bbacked No | 9c | 446.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 68c | 399.1$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d1…1a60backed No | 35c | 356.24$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed No | 36c | 340.65$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 66c | 295.24$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed Yes | 67c | 258.11$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 24c | 202$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 68c | 195.07$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked Yes | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…52b7backed Yes | 77c | 86.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…f5a3backed Yes | 70c | 77.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…385bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…bf01backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…7f67backed Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bernie Moreno win the Ohio Republican Senate Primary?this page
- Will Frank LaRose win the Ohio Republican Senate Primary?No won
- Will Matt Dolan win the Ohio Republican Senate Primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.