South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e0cda8a4b8dd1d56e63435e8bf665ac1ae04a89c75b3c9c8579cd857822afff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 7,432$4,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,388.72 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Over | 37c | 7,185$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,512.4 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Under | 8c | 4,444$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.52 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 4,199$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.46 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 41c | 3,434$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.43 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 3,155$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.85 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 41c | 2,750$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.36 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 57c | 1,903$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.5 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283c…ba51backed Under | 79c | 1,746$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…67c2backed Under | 31c | 1,736$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.45 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed Under | 43c | 1,406$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.4 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 33c | 1,298$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862.99 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 59c | 1,113$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.75 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 59c | 876.5$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.81 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 58c | 845.36$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.31 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 34c | 737.64$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.06 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 34c | 612.06$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.96 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Under | 9c | 584.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Over | 42c | 478.57$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.57 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 39c | 475.59$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.59 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 5c | 462.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 65c | 461.6$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 60c | 445$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.04 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Under | 52c | 403.86$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.06 | 232 | 54.7%127 W · 105 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 59c | 389.12$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.43 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 64c | 364.04$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Under | 44c | 352.27$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 61c | 312.22$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 61c | 312.22$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.83 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 10c | 264.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 352 | 46.9%165 W · 187 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 253.29$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Under | 8c | 235.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 108 | 28.7%31 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 57c | 232.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…ceedbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 59c | 229.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 60c | 226.64$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 219.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 61c | 146.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 48c | 146.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 129.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Under | 58c | 126.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 58c | 122.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.59 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Under | 10c | 102.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 55c | 102.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 58c | 98.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…13cebacked Over | 54c | 92.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 63c | 88.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…0e48backed Under | 38c | 79.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 124 | 34.7%43 W · 81 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 38c | 79.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Under | 44c | 79.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…8b4cbacked Under | 64c | 78.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Under | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Under | 62c | 67.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 68c | 62.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 65c | 56.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 61c | 46.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ed…a4f5backed Over | 45c | 46.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…b5a8backed Over | 45c | 44.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…6bd7backed Over | 32c | 43.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…c928backed Over | 41c | 42.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 46c | 38.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +10.8wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 42c | 27.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e7…6716backed Over | 42c | 25.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Over | 52c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x743f…420cbacked Over | 58c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 60 | 78.3%47 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 80cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 2.5this page
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: AA Argentinos Juniors O/U 1.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: AA Estudiantes O/U 0.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 0.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.