South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88dd2eeb21a89207581251eb0da6f9ffa361532560b8fdb26608fd7bbd021fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AA Argentinos Juniorsof AA Argentinos Juniors, AA Estudiantes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 44c | 26,931$11,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,042.95 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AA Estudiantes | 56c | 9,141$5,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,077.5 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed AA Estudiantes | 44c | 7,156$3,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,163.01 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 5,311$2,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,989.3 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 41c | 2,608$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.34 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked AA Estudiantes | 56c | 2,000$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 895$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.39 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked AA Estudiantes | 59c | 892$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.93 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed AA Estudiantes | 59c | 892$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.93 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed AA Estudiantes | 59c | 891.41$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.86 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 39c | 766.52$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.58 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 45c | 737.19$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.45 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed AA Estudiantes | 57c | 499.44$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed AA Estudiantes | 59c | 448.76$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.77 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed AA Estudiantes | 55c | 430$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 42c | 425.23$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.63 | 210 | 44.3%93 W · 117 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed AA Estudiantes | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed AA Estudiantes | 57c | 254.03$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…ceedbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 45c | 221.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed AA Estudiantes | 58c | 208.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked AA Estudiantes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed AA Estudiantes | 58c | 157.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 152$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 127 | 57.5%73 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…8af3backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 45c | 142.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed AA Estudiantes | 40c | 128.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed AA Estudiantes | 61c | 113.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 552 | 50.2%277 W · 275 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 42c | 99.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 155 | 54.2%84 W · 71 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f1…5b7fbacked AA Estudiantes | 58c | 86.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked AA Estudiantes | 59c | 58.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4b03backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 33c | 46.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed AA Estudiantes | 61c | 43.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed AA Estudiantes | 61c | 40.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 506 | 56.3%285 W · 221 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed AA Estudiantes | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed AA Estudiantes | 61c | 39.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed AA Estudiantes | 61c | 39.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AA Estudiantes | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed AA Estudiantes | 56c | 34.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked AA Estudiantes | 54c | 30.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…ceecbacked AA Argentinos Juniors | 41c | 27.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…1ca6backed AA Argentinos Juniors | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed AA Estudiantes | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 145 | 63.4%92 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked AA Estudiantes | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4db…e401backed AA Estudiantes | 61c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked AA Estudiantes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked AA Estudiantes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed AA Estudiantes | 60c | 18.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed AA Estudiantes | 61c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 83 | 75.9%63 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-1.5)this page
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: AA Argentinos Juniors O/U 1.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: AA Estudiantes O/U 0.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 0.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 2.5Over won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- AA Argentinos Juniors vs. AA Estudiantes: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AA Argentinos Juniors (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-1.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-2.5)AA Argentinos Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.