Earnings · resolved market
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1b67bac7dae3291574c02e8111f39db5f23c130fcdb4e7a7ecc3a360e997e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf9a…a50ebacked Yes | 75c | 599.43$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabab…58d2backed No | 25c | 599.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e01…4003backed No | 53c | 330.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…4653backed No | 24c | 205.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 22c | 191.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 61c | 161$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 158.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 77c | 145.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 15c | 138.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…52eabacked No | 22c | 136.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 32c | 135.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 13c | 121.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 111.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 107$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked No | 14c | 97.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a7…3b81backed Yes | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 17c | 63.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7656backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed No | 21c | 56.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f9…0db6backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…a66dbacked Yes | 64c | 50.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 48c | 41.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…6e01backed Yes | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 55c | 19.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…ee17backed Yes | 77c | 16.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.