Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1c322f0b35652eaaa161cac86e08acbe650630c47ccf2a3e281b7002234fd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 64c | 367.61$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.97 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 37c | 321.43$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 20c | 265.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9d…246ebacked Yes | 48c | 264.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 230.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 26c | 203.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 56c | 175.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 169.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 155.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 55c | 139.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 66c | 138.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 56c | 137.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes | 51c | 128.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes | 68c | 114.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 111.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 108.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 52c | 98.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 46c | 97.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 49c | 92.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 61c | 85.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 78.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…5be7backed No | 59c | 74.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 38c | 73.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 24c | 69.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 77c | 69.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 35c | 69.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 68.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 66.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 43c | 59.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 67c | 58.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 51c | 55.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 46c | 53.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 78c | 50.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 60c | 50.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 21c | 49.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 46c | 48.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 80c | 47.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 61c | 47.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 39c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 39c | 45.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 40.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…2970backed No | 57c | 40.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 38.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 47c | 37.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 38c | 37.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 56c | 36.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Yes | 55c | 35.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 35.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 45c | 34.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 33.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 52c | 29.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 28.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 60c | 28.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 58c | 25.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…e118backed No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a48…3e67backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.