NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Buccaneers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e3a32ceb5076f7659a8a66b4ed8324fbf9f80c2439bbe53ccb16b30fed1e0a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buccaneersof Bengals, Buccaneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,303
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Buccaneers | 31c | 2,584$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.17 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Bengals | 69c | 2,016$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.04 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Bengals | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed Buccaneers | 32c | 1,844$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +134%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Bengals | 68c | 959$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.97 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Buccaneers | 31c | 600$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Buccaneers | 32c | 254.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Buccaneers | 31c | 221.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Buccaneers | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…de75backed Buccaneers | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…1304backed Bengals | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Buccaneers | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965c…caa6backed Bengals | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Buccaneers | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3004…aebbbacked Bengals | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…c9b5backed Bengals | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…960dbacked Bengals | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…fa5dbacked Bengals | 70c | 14.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0834…1187backed Bengals | 71c | 14.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.