WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e3f24ff2acdc5f84e7015c371cb6bbe01a295adfae017b55b173c3249d1df92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof Phoenix Mercury, Minnesota Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,280$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.5 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Minnesota Lynx | 49c | 845.7$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.57 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 540.18$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.45 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 472.63$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.83 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 259.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d0…a22fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 259.25$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 185.68$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 184.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 159.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 54.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 41.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 30.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Lynx | 46c | 27.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Minnesota Lynx | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)this page
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix MercuryMinnesota Lynx won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 169.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 170.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.