WNBA · resolved market
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c427db9d5ac5e34c74968887f38e0ee42fed566434bcb34805127cbbd9de60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 55c | 1,818$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.8 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,763$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.76 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 46c | 1,116$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.35 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 725.06$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.35 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Over | 50c | 337.14$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 45c | 279.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.68 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 122$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…7e13backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 119.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 113.45$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Under | 61c | 36.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed Under | 61c | 36.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Over | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5this page
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix MercuryMinnesota Lynx won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 169.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 170.5Over won
- Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5Over won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-4.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-5.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.