Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e60141e26b2611bf752b04d97d507e2e82248b3c25bb8e4fd17539df245dd1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 36c | 559.27$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.86 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 389.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 275.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 74c | 256.35$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 25c | 213.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800d…7c1dbacked Yes | 6c | 193.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 183.77$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 181.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 35c | 172.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 23c | 163.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 159.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 146.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 27c | 121.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 112.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 27c | 111.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 13c | 110.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 89.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 34c | 85.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 35c | 70.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 66.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 78c | 63.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 58.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 76c | 56.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…e8b4backed Yes | 27c | 55.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 73c | 51.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 33c | 49.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 79c | 47.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 69c | 45.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 31c | 44.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 44.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 40c | 42.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 74c | 34.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 30.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 55c | 29.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 67c | 28.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 66c | 27.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 71c | 27.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 73c | 26.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 74c | 26.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 74c | 23.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 23.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 22.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 73c | 20.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 71c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 68c | 17.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 73c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…cf96backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 67°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.