South American Leagues · resolved market
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e606adc6390425fed58c0f7bcd937a6f0e293d920780a8b2bbdfc70887b7dd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 3,141$1,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,652.73 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 50c | 1,280$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 1,006$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.96 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 65c | 565.33$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 538.99$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.87 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 37c | 497.53$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 404.35$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 61c | 396.93$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.13 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 363.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.73 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 339.85$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.08 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 49c | 248.02$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.44 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 37c | 116.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 47c | 104.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 64c | 91.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…d808backed Over | 35c | 82.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…d91abacked Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…5c2ebacked Over | 43c | 48.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 49c | 28.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 51c | 22.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 65c | 20.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…36b2backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…3fa2backed Over | 76c | 19.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x992f…e0f1backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5this page
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 2.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 3.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.