Cricket · resolved market
National Cricket League, Women: Queensland Fire vs Victoria
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e6a5eaef7d462d3012cbcb705ceee7cf5543d6353c71b0cd7cdcf3dbdaebb5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Queensland Fireof Queensland Fire, Victoria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,412 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Victoria | 2c | 4,391$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.93 | 636 | 46.4%295 W · 341 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Victoria | 5c | 1,283$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 310 | 27.4%85 W · 225 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Victoria | 26c | 1,179$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.77 | 641 | 43.1%276 W · 365 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85b…d688backed Victoria | 6c | 869.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Victoria | 3c | 599.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 654 | 51.1%334 W · 320 L | +26.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ff…5102backed Victoria | 3c | 542.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Queensland Fire | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Queensland Fire | 77c | 195.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Victoria | 11c | 170.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Queensland Fire | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Victoria | 9c | 126.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 184 | 19.6%36 W · 148 L | -25.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…3053backed Queensland Fire | 70c | 96.11$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…6c94backed Victoria | 31c | 90.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 360 | 47.5%171 W · 189 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Victoria | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e7…643fbacked Queensland Fire | 72c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fe…26eebacked Queensland Fire | 53c | 25.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 470 | 61.5%289 W · 181 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77df…8869backed Victoria | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Queensland Fire | 65c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.