Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e81829f8b86ba693aa0533b07b5fafd12433a6bd7b2dec82fc374ba862fd738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 72c | 20,932$15,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,861.03 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 28c | 14,286$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 2,769$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.33 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 28c | 1,625$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.13 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Yes | 28c | 945.54$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.75 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 935.78$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.06 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 30c | 641.67$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 598.92$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 437.15$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 416.74$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.69 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 73c | 342$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 29c | 165.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 30c | 160.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked No | 72c | 155.59$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 147.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 139.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 25c | 112.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 29c | 92.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Yes | 29c | 76.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 30c | 71.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 67.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab7c…746dbacked Yes | 22c | 54.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 50.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1a…27b0backed No | 72c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 76c | 24.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecda…6f0abacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 20.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-26?No won
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.