NHL · resolved market
AHL: Milwaukee Admirals vs. Manitoba Moose
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eb29aed89de6b45658b29e19d5f86cdec030b735939aa86c904a3c4eba08c47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Admiralsof Milwaukee Admirals, Manitoba Moose
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,291 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Milwaukee Admirals | 53c | 418.7$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Milwaukee Admirals | 52c | 415.19$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.63 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Manitoba Moose | 48c | 223.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Manitoba Moose | 47c | 128.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed Manitoba Moose | 47c | 110.66$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Manitoba Moose | 47c | 107.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Manitoba Moose | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6a…089bbacked Manitoba Moose | 47c | 102.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…17e0backed Manitoba Moose | 47c | 98.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Milwaukee Admirals | 54c | 80.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 454 | 47.8%217 W · 237 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.