Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Hikaru Sato
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1618c54e9dfc51d068ea7cd37092d16034ae858107a7ae185a059fc3d760ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ikumi Yamazakiof Ikumi Yamazaki, Hikaru Sato
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Hikaru Sato | 17c | 850.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.31 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Hikaru Sato | 55c | 523.19$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.76 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 69c | 506.87$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42a…87d6backed Hikaru Sato | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 35c | 494.06$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.14 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Hikaru Sato | 65c | 490.85$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.05 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hikaru Sato | 22c | 227.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Sato | 24c | 125.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Hikaru Sato | 24c | 120.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 226 | 51.8%117 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ba…1259backed Hikaru Sato | 36c | 113.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 34c | 75.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hikaru Sato | 65c | 65.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 75c | 60.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Hikaru Sato | 28c | 59.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Hikaru Sato | 47c | 50.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Hikaru Sato | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 74c | 43.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Hikaru Sato | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…7d2ebacked Hikaru Sato | 63c | 39.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…2f2abacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 61c | 35.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 64c | 34.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Hikaru Sato | 72c | 32.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Ikumi Yamazaki | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 152 | 61.8%94 W · 58 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…8a6ebacked Hikaru Sato | 76c | 24.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 417 | 68.1%284 W · 133 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Ikumi Yamazaki | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.