CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs HOTU (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1f1fae48a76ca36d195b4a3cc64908ac0739f7bf64c01fb9d6d44c780fc8f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gentle Matesof Gentle Mates, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x861f…a189backed Gentle Mates | 55c | 1,260$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.48 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed HOTU | 45c | 550$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 500 | 43%215 W · 285 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Gentle Mates | 55c | 550$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…7954backed HOTU | 46c | 485.72$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b2…70f0backed HOTU | 16c | 413.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 428 | 31.3%134 W · 294 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…a367backed HOTU | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.9 | 283 | 44.2%125 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Gentle Mates | 72c | 322.21$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed HOTU | 48c | 179.55$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 211 | 37.4%79 W · 132 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…9eeabacked Gentle Mates | 42c | 171.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 148 | 53.4%79 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed HOTU | 44c | 144$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed HOTU | 27c | 102.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed HOTU | 49c | 102.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 326 | 53.1%173 W · 153 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed HOTU | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 439 | 33.7%148 W · 291 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…754cbacked Gentle Mates | 59c | 84.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked HOTU | 59c | 69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Gentle Mates | 41c | 66.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…d127backed HOTU | 52c | 57.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebe…3835backed HOTU | 43c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -58%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs HOTU (BO3) - IstanbuLAN Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs HOTU - Map 2 WinnerGentle Mates won
- Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.