Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f482a96d1187db0b45dd582d2ca509f80a6fd715c0d5660aab84a2924ecd94c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd90f…7551backed No | 5c | 978.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 50c | 362.2$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.86 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 317.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 58c | 300.18$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 79c | 252.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 197.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 21c | 188.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.06 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 52c | 175.96$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 144.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 28c | 144.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 136.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 61c | 108.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 71c | 99.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 51c | 83.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 43c | 69.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 62c | 67.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 46c | 61.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 57c | 61.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 50.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 21c | 47.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 56c | 44.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 39c | 41.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 49c | 41.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 41c | 37.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 37.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 41c | 37.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 59c | 36.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 51c | 34.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 53c | 29.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 66c | 26.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 44c | 24.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 80c | 24.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 57c | 23.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 23.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 71c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 47c | 21.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 56c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x546d…e135backed No | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 65c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 70c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 65c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.