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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Synapse vs FTS (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Team Synapseof Team Synapse, FTS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,287
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,287 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0944…358fbacked FTS18c691.99$127 inLost-$127.432321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed FTS33c323.64$108 inLost-$107.741,27049.6%630 W · 640 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Team Synapse64c232.76$150 inWon+$82.7615945.9%73 W · 86 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0286…f61dbacked FTS36c160.17$58 inLost-$57.665549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked Team Synapse64c150$96 inWon+$548342.2%35 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Team Synapse73c110$80 inWon+$29.724939.4%98 W · 151 L-17.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Synapse49c99.99$49 inWon+$5170752.5%371 W · 336 L+48.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked FTS36c95.6$35 inLost-$34.611,48248.9%724 W · 758 L+32.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed FTS28c91.01$26 inLost-$25.657051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked FTS30c80.89$24 inLost-$24.1433452.7%176 W · 158 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3214…cfcbbacked Team Synapse65c80$52 inWon+$27.817162.6%107 W · 64 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed FTS34c65$22 inLost-$22.13135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed Team Synapse61c49$30 inWon+$18.938956.2%50 W · 39 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Team Synapse67c22$15 inWon+$7.2619855.6%110 W · 88 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Synapse66c20.03$13 inWon+$6.8883345.1%376 W · 457 L-28.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Team Synapse73c20$15 inWon+$5.43964.1%25 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Team Synapse65c19$12 inWon+$6.6565747.8%314 W · 343 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Team Synapse61c17.61$11 inWon+$6.8768847.4%326 W · 362 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.