Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Synapse vs FTS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6996fb4888b1b76adb376a1d8024a2a6f8bae533858111ab38c8bd3d21103edb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Synapseof Team Synapse, FTS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked FTS | 17c | 6,438$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.36 | 1,202 | 42.8%514 W · 688 L | +38.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0587…c40bbacked FTS | 41c | 3,534$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.42 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…08f4backed Team Synapse | 61c | 1,981$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.39 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Team Synapse | 70c | 1,920$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.83 | 486 | 50.8%247 W · 239 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cb…57d1backed FTS | 35c | 1,420$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed FTS | 1c | 1,200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 343 | 2.9%10 W · 333 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed FTS | 5c | 643.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 333 | 41.1%137 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked FTS | 23c | 591.22$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.75 | 198 | 35.9%71 W · 127 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Synapse | 53c | 577$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.19 | 704 | 33.1%233 W · 471 L | -24.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed FTS | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed FTS | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 266 | 53.8%143 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Team Synapse | 64c | 490.54$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.59 | 676 | 48.4%327 W · 349 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked FTS | 33c | 472.18$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.46 | 371 | 60.4%224 W · 147 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FTS | 47c | 418.74$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 394 | 41.1%162 W · 232 L | -18.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Synapse | 56c | 371.77$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.75 | 906 | 38.4%348 W · 558 L | -40.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf848…8c59backed FTS | 37c | 341.43$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Synapse | 62c | 187.48$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1,482 | 48.9%724 W · 758 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…f3fcbacked FTS | 46c | 128$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…caa8backed Team Synapse | 66c | 100.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked FTS | 16c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…ad4cbacked FTS | 24c | 80.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Team Synapse | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed FTS | 33c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -14.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…f61dbacked Team Synapse | 57c | 72.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2591…b7c1backed FTS | 24c | 71.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…75c2backed Team Synapse | 76c | 65.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed FTS | 40c | 63.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 43%105 W · 139 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FTS | 34c | 58.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,395 | 47.4%1,135 W · 1,260 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…247cbacked Team Synapse | 65c | 49.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Synapse | 55c | 43.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 538 | 51.3%276 W · 262 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626a…3d36backed Team Synapse | 67c | 38.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…8553backed Team Synapse | 65c | 35.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Synapse | 69c | 23.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 550 | 48.7%268 W · 282 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Synapse vs FTS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Synapse vs FTS (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group ATeam Synapse won
- Dota 2: Team Synapse vs FTS - Game 1 WinnerTeam Synapse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.