Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f8bc8c9f2df4d2aef3603450e9bb4d3d57b5141c12c030c14b79c914982e41c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Birmingham City FCof Birmingham City FC, Wrexham AFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Birmingham City FC | 26c | 6,251$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,651.42 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wrexham AFC | 74c | 4,546$3,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,364.76 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wrexham AFC | 77c | 1,362$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.43 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Birmingham City FC | 21c | 849.6$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.84 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Wrexham AFC | 77c | 409.16$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.42 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Wrexham AFC | 74c | 225.09$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Wrexham AFC | 80c | 117.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Wrexham AFC | 80c | 117.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 288 | 59.7%172 W · 116 L | +19.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Wrexham AFC | 80c | 117.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Wrexham AFC | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Birmingham City FC | 30c | 34.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Wrexham AFC | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Wrexham AFC | 77c | 22.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Wrexham AFC | 79c | 18.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…921abacked Wrexham AFC | 77c | 13.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Wrexham AFC | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Wrexham AFC (-2.5)Birmingham City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.