Premier League · resolved market
Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33ef0dace5e97b43f6eb25be49b61dc3b85e55af744b5510f13074a5212b17b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 2,447$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.98 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 27c | 2,186$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.99 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 1,151$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.47 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 50c | 926.35$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.18 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 49c | 892.73$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.73 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +12.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +41%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 51c | 783.81$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6638…0b09backed Under | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 71c | 486.08$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Under | 76c | 454.17$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 363.9$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.31 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 61c | 335.89$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 59c | 290.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 53c | 282.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 40c | 275$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 177 | 45.2%80 W · 97 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 236$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.36 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 46c | 227.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…687abacked Over | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 26c | 172.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed Under | 56c | 125.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 52c | 115.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 52c | 109$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 48c | 109$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 53c | 107$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…b729backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Under | 52c | 74.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 68c | 70.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…b5a0backed Over | 43c | 69.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5926…a9debacked Over | 47c | 63.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 50.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 60c | 49.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…9eecbacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…668abacked Over | 53c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked Over | 52c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…6af6backed Under | 49c | 26.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Over | 50c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Under | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 42 | 78.6%33 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc25e…bf25backed Over | 51c | 24.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Over | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…de73backed Over | 51c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 49c | 21.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…c027backed Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5this page
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Birmingham City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Birmingham City FC won
- Spread: Wrexham AFC (-2.5)Birmingham City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.