Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open: Sinner vs. Shelton
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f9cc09206a0b0e4f5ebda7e308b906a25421c875745ccf82da93017742f364c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Shelton
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Shelton | 7c | 15,614$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.99 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…4224backed Shelton | 9c | 10,985$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…8179backed Shelton | 6c | 3,915$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.53 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Shelton | 2c | 2,887$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Shelton | 8c | 1,827$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.19 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Shelton | 8c | 1,800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Shelton | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Shelton | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Shelton | 8c | 750.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Shelton | 7c | 633.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4032…bd81backed Shelton | 7c | 543.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e3…6246backed Shelton | 5c | 530.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Shelton | 6c | 499.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Shelton | 5c | 454.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Shelton | 13c | 338.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…eb69backed Shelton | 8c | 337.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Shelton | 15c | 334.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Shelton | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Shelton | 4c | 294.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…94d6backed Shelton | 7c | 271.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Shelton | 8c | 201.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed Shelton | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0992…2a08backed Shelton | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…917ebacked Shelton | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Shelton | 12c | 95.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.