Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fbc89c8c065c875d0ebca299719f705cc9dcc4db7d1e39af4a7fec58bafbd7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 36c | 14,204$5,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,090.26 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 8,139$5,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,208.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 64c | 5,642$3,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,610.66 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 63c | 1,001$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.94 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 37c | 736$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 36c | 735.44$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.98 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 37c | 499.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 63c | 317.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 50c | 290$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 37c | 227.62$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 61c | 215$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 62c | 173$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Over | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 43c | 99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…59a5backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…a05cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Over | 64c | 39.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Over | 64c | 38.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…1ac2backed Over | 75c | 28.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-0.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.