Europa Conference League · resolved market
FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x400bdd41c6d1f8988d3110c6d3ca39f7f4aa760c5e7815dcf055dc3a384f0b09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 26c | 2,270$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.07 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a1…30d1backed Over | 64c | 1,097$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.86 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 56c | 1,029$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.58 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 9c | 882.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6522…5ab3backed Over | 52c | 660.73$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Over | 71c | 642.64$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 55c | 608.29$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.73 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 65c | 541$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 74c | 541$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…fcb9backed Over | 74c | 541$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…85b5backed Over | 69c | 541$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.22 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed Over | 74c | 541$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.66 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 36c | 210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked Over | 50c | 109.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8b…7529backed Over | 50c | 66.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…2715backed Over | 21c | 59.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 79c | 59.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…a618backed Over | 67c | 37.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed Over | 69c | 26.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5this page
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-1.5)FCI Levadia won
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-2.5)FCI Levadia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.