Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FCI Levadia (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4b8aacbac781350bb25370df1c6ce8d0c6621a511209d77450577e9c5111527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FCI Levadiaof FCI Levadia, Caernarfon Town FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FCI Levadia | 70c | 2,286$1,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.22 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Caernarfon Town FC | 18c | 1,767$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.04 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…51abbacked FCI Levadia | 77c | 982$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.16 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed FCI Levadia | 77c | 982$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.16 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed FCI Levadia | 77c | 982$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.16 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e68…fcb9backed FCI Levadia | 75c | 982$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed FCI Levadia | 77c | 982$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.16 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked FCI Levadia | 56c | 885.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.93 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Caernarfon Town FC | 53c | 793.19$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.4 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Caernarfon Town FC | 20c | 652.64$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Caernarfon Town FC | 21c | 590$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Caernarfon Town FC | 63c | 381.62$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.42 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed FCI Levadia | 64c | 355.1$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FCI Levadia | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed FCI Levadia | 62c | 246.87$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +11.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Caernarfon Town FC | 38c | 234.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked FCI Levadia | 76c | 217.07$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FCI Levadia | 38c | 204$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked FCI Levadia | 72c | 109.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Caernarfon Town FC | 60c | 108.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 318 | 42.1%134 W · 184 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed FCI Levadia | 39c | 105.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FCI Levadia | 58c | 88.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Caernarfon Town FC | 19c | 72.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Caernarfon Town FC | 63c | 56.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FCI Levadia | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Caernarfon Town FC | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed FCI Levadia | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked FCI Levadia | 39c | 32.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Caernarfon Town FC | 63c | 28.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-2.5)this page
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-1.5)FCI Levadia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.