Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FCI Levadia (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb422b4748f6cd8917671f4dd2571b253b8bb6b683f1530480b78146ba11988e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FCI Levadiaof FCI Levadia, Caernarfon Town FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked FCI Levadia | 56c | 1,418$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.56 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Caernarfon Town FC | 37c | 1,025$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.42 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Caernarfon Town FC | 37c | 446.54$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Caernarfon Town FC | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed FCI Levadia | 65c | 308.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FCI Levadia | 61c | 276.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.89 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Caernarfon Town FC | 42c | 247.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Caernarfon Town FC | 45c | 222.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Caernarfon Town FC | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Caernarfon Town FC | 45c | 222$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Caernarfon Town FC | 7c | 201.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed Caernarfon Town FC | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…83aebacked FCI Levadia | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Caernarfon Town FC | 9c | 186$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed FCI Levadia | 63c | 159.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…43aabacked FCI Levadia | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Caernarfon Town FC | 42c | 135$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Caernarfon Town FC | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked FCI Levadia | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Caernarfon Town FC | 37c | 96.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked FCI Levadia | 63c | 84.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x580b…0522backed Caernarfon Town FC | 41c | 48.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed FCI Levadia | 61c | 39.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Caernarfon Town FC | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…3b2bbacked FCI Levadia | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Caernarfon Town FC | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed FCI Levadia | 64c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-1.5)this page
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- FCI Levadia vs. Caernarfon Town FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FCI Levadia (-2.5)FCI Levadia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.