Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Texas Longhorns (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402d1b3335ebd9f3237582fb0d40b0de7523e4afc48aeefa4939da167b3d0832
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LSU Tigersof Texas Longhorns, LSU Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas Longhorns | 49c | 4,286$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108.22 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked LSU Tigers | 51c | 3,984$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,933.53 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked LSU Tigers | 48c | 824.75$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.87 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed LSU Tigers | 48c | 557.69$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Texas Longhorns | 52c | 557.69$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Texas Longhorns | 46c | 373$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.58 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Texas Longhorns | 56c | 310.49$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed LSU Tigers | 50c | 298.39$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked LSU Tigers | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Texas Longhorns | 50c | 184$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Texas Longhorns | 51c | 181.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Texas Longhorns | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Texas Longhorns | 52c | 107.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed LSU Tigers | 48c | 100.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Texas Longhorns | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed LSU Tigers | 44c | 87.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed LSU Tigers | 43c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Texas Longhorns | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked LSU Tigers | 46c | 55.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked Texas Longhorns | 54c | 48.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Texas Longhorns | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5e…8891backed Texas Longhorns | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked LSU Tigers | 61c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Longhorns (-10.5)this page
- LSU Tigers vs. Texas LonghornsTexas Longhorns won
- LSU Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 150.5Over won
- LSU Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 151.5Over won
- Spread: Texas Longhorns (-11.5)LSU Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.