Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Texas Longhorns (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59f9f5b818ec6439ad9528a0d3e24fcd7fff9b41dc1a844bdf354dc0bfffb120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LSU Tigersof Texas Longhorns, LSU Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed LSU Tigers | 52c | 9,308$4,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,458.39 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas Longhorns | 48c | 3,866$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.31 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Texas Longhorns | 48c | 1,683$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.97 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Texas Longhorns | 47c | 1,680$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.6 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Longhorns | 49c | 672.11$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.93 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Texas Longhorns | 45c | 625.44$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.13 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Texas Longhorns | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed LSU Tigers | 53c | 494.2$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.43 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…3d19backed Texas Longhorns | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texas Longhorns | 47c | 414.16$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Longhorns | 47c | 233.59$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.31 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Texas Longhorns | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Texas Longhorns | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ea…c2efbacked LSU Tigers | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 230 | 54.3%125 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Texas Longhorns | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Texas Longhorns | 44c | 89.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked LSU Tigers | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked LSU Tigers | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Texas Longhorns | 43c | 28.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Texas Longhorns | 50c | 28.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed LSU Tigers | 56c | 24.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Texas Longhorns | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Longhorns (-11.5)this page
- LSU Tigers vs. Texas LonghornsTexas Longhorns won
- LSU Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 150.5Over won
- LSU Tigers vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 151.5Over won
- Spread: Texas Longhorns (-10.5)LSU Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.