Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x408820d2b9bf488e5af59e331ef4eac90f2c41dd01b05a056673876e0f11e0fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 234.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 222.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 212.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 26c | 193.88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 116.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 114.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 27c | 107.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 82.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 24c | 81.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 19c | 81.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 68.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 19c | 59.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 58.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 58.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…c00dbacked Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 46.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 38.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 38.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 33.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 26.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6353…d73dbacked No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 80c | 18.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 74c | 18.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.