Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec188e3ad1141aa7abc7a144c7d025d588a8fdb47f5c3d928aca93a95ed4cac1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 286.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 278.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 174.42$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…7d72backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 96.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 22c | 89.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 86.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 78c | 85.23$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 70.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 63.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 58.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 46.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 32c | 40.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 72c | 32.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 70c | 28.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…de76backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 25.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 73c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 22.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 16.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 15.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 15.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.