Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4095b85ee2367c4a13dcf98fba3b6321dbbc071787503a513d1d50b88b97ad37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 4,767$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,387.74 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 2,814$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.91 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 1,973$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.1 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.05 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 9c | 1,315$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.63 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 10c | 686.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 24c | 500$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 10c | 402.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.86 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Yes | 25c | 401.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 58c | 368.51$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.42 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 351.55$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.92 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 330.04$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.87 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 31c | 322.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.9 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 16c | 310.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 13c | 303.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.03 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 50c | 295$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 16c | 275.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.1 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 15c | 258.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 23c | 257.09$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 65c | 233.55$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 213.07$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.34 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Yes | 23c | 149.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Yes | 29c | 146.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.45 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 11c | 114$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 38 | 78.9%30 W · 8 L | +8.8wins | +0.23per pick | 56cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 77c | 106.21$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 18c | 106.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 19c | 102.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…c012backed Yes | 45c | 94.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 55c | 93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes | 27c | 78.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…2498backed Yes | 26c | 77.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…a94abacked Yes | 23c | 67.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12e…e4ecbacked Yes | 31c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 80c | 46.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb3…39b7backed Yes | 31c | 45.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…865abacked Yes | 31c | 43.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2508…e009backed Yes | 31c | 33.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 55c | 25.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…6f90backed No | 71c | 19.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1c…bdbabacked No | 70c | 19.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…243abacked No | 71c | 18.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f9…1b68backed No | 71c | 18.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…56efbacked No | 71c | 17.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd931…ae99backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5057…520ebacked No | 71c | 16.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x145c…bad0backed No | 70c | 16.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…8ec4backed No | 71c | 15.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…240bbacked No | 71c | 14.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…62eabacked No | 70c | 14.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-24?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.