Australian A League · resolved market
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x790cc3ca60b40300c2efe2384dfb2fcc2c34fc724903fb870f025df40e0a0701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 23c | 3,200$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.92 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 3,142$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.46 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 38c | 1,325$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.5 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…19fcbacked Yes | 56c | 714.58$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 73c | 579.29$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Yes | 52c | 525.77$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 419.28$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 319.17$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 28c | 318$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 38c | 196.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed No | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 39c | 187.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 164.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x786c…a94abacked Yes | 38c | 147.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 10c | 136.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b32…bd7abacked Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 28c | 102.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 102$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 52c | 83.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 25c | 82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…b752backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 31c | 74.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked No | 58c | 67.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 25 | 88%22 W · 3 L | +7.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Yes | 50c | 56.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Yes | 38c | 52.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 73c | 43.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 49c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…fbe9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 39.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 29c | 35.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 51c | 35.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 73c | 34.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…5e53backed Yes | 52c | 30.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.