Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Syracuse Orange (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f612364ec54f5bc5f704ce03d8c323c3bf3c7c8133ae5db3a02fd993fcb5d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Syracuse Orangeof Syracuse Orange, California Golden Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California Golden Bears | 44c | 5,687$2,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,483.46 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Syracuse Orange | 56c | 4,426$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.62 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Syracuse Orange | 57c | 2,891$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.45 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked California Golden Bears | 44c | 1,208$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.13 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked California Golden Bears | 43c | 407$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.01 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 273$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Syracuse Orange | 53c | 211$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.17 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Syracuse Orange | 56c | 66.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Syracuse Orange | 56c | 61.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed California Golden Bears | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California Golden Bears | 44c | 34.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fb…b328backed California Golden Bears | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Syracuse Orange | 56c | 22.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Syracuse Orange | 56c | 18.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 120 | 34.2%41 W · 79 L | -13.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Syracuse Orange (-5.5)this page
- California Golden Bears vs. Syracuse OrangeSyracuse Orange won
- California Golden Bears vs. Syracuse Orange: O/U 148.5Over won
- Spread: Syracuse Orange (-6.5)Syracuse Orange won
- Spread: Syracuse Orange (-7.5)California Golden Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.