La Liga · resolved market
CD Mirandés vs. Granada CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f703f6cbcc5212f9ae1d7125b2c6ebbcd8d0f7f90b6e8f29366586f09a4427
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 54c | 4,251$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.64 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 42c | 3,693$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.99 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 2,575$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.03 | 988 | 33.4%330 W · 658 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 2,443$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.07 | 828 | 44.8%371 W · 457 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 403$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.65 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 33c | 277.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 123 | 69.9%86 W · 37 L | +29.7wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 52c | 258.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.29 | 413 | 51.8%214 W · 199 L | +17.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 52c | 219.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 218.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…9c7bbacked Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814e…40b1backed Over | 54c | 191.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 32c | 148.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 175 | 62.9%110 W · 65 L | +32.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 18c | 140.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed Under | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 43c | 117.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 18c | 101.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 33c | 75.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 51c | 56.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…60bbbacked Under | 48c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 72c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Mirandés vs. Granada CF: O/U 4.5this page
- CD Mirandés vs. Granada CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Mirandés vs. Granada CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Mirandés vs. Granada CF: O/U 3.5Over won
- CD Mirandés vs. Granada CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Mirandés (-1.5)CD Mirandés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.