Music · resolved market
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40fff1f56796fd3ffbf078954dd59e136219b7849c0af8bd4f0c4b9729b78a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…3128backed Yes | 77c | 2,939$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 17c | 1,784$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked No | 4c | 1,188$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…8dadbacked No | 9c | 1,141$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 1,109$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…a491backed No | 24c | 1,005$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…fbacbacked No | 6c | 824.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed No | 3c | 718.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 2c | 713.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 3c | 661.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 12c | 523.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 484.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 465.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…f47bbacked No | 7c | 435$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…7778backed No | 4c | 427.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…6b12backed No | 9c | 419.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 5c | 404.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0b92backed No | 3c | 394.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…e674backed No | 64c | 393.06$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…1df2backed No | 6c | 321.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9f24backed No | 3c | 315$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed No | 4c | 302.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…af84backed No | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb868…a94ebacked No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b6…23c7backed Yes | 61c | 87.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa586…9a83backed No | 51c | 59.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +207.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…3113backed No | 33c | 44.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 36c | 31.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed No | 59c | 22.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.